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Project complexity and risk management (ProCRiM) : towards modelling project complexity driven risk paths in construction projects

机译：项目复杂性和风险管理（ProCRiM）：对建筑项目中由项目复杂性驱动的风险路径建模

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摘要

Project complexity has been extensively explored in the literature because of its contribution towards the failure of major projects in terms of cost and time overruns. Focusing on the interface of Project Complexity and Interdependency Model ling of Project Risks, we propose a new process that aids capturing interdependency between project complexity, complexity induced risks and project objectives. The proposed modelling approach is grounded in the theoretical framework of Expected Utility Theory and Bayesian Belief Networks. We consider the decision problem of identifying critical risks and selecting optimal risk mitigation strategies at the commencement stage of a project, taking into account the utility function of the decision maker with regard to the importance of project objectives and holistic interaction between project complexity and risk. The proposed process is supported by empirical research that was conducted in the construction industry in order to explore the current practices of managing project compl exity and the associated risks. The experts interviewed acknowledged the contribution of the proposed process to the understanding of complex dynamics between project complexity attributes and risks. Application of the proposed process is illustrated through a simulation study.
机译：由于项目复杂性在成本和时间超支方面对重大项目的失败做出了贡献，因此在文献中对其进行了广泛的探讨。着眼于项目复杂性和项目风险的相互依赖性模型接口，我们提出了一种新的流程，该流程有助于捕获项目复杂性，复杂性引发的风险与项目目标之间的相互依赖性。所提出的建模方法基于期望效用理论和贝叶斯信念网络的理论框架。我们考虑在项目开始阶段识别关键风险并选择最佳风险缓解策略的决策问题，同时考虑到决策者的效用函数，以及项目目标的重要性以及项目复杂性与风险之间的整体交互作用。拟议的过程得到建筑行业进行的经验研究的支持，以探索管理项目完成和相关风险的当前实践。接受采访的专家们承认，所提出的过程对理解项目复杂性属性与风险之间的复杂动态的贡献。通过仿真研究说明了所提出的过程的应用。

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